2016 Four Nations - The Final

2016 Four Nations - The Final

Plenty has been said of England’s failure to reach this Final so I won’t bang on about it here.  All I will say is that I was deeply disappointed with the way the second half panned out.  I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who felt we still had a chance of winning the game when the lads went in for half time despite the disappointment of falling further behind thanks to the boot of Jonathan Thurston.

Maybe I just share his slightly pessimistic view on the game but I read Gary Schofield’s thoughts on the game in Rugby Leaguer and League Express earlier this week and I have to say that I totally agree with him on everything he said.  He’ll get a lot of stick for it no doubt but he’s clearly a very passionate England supporter and, like all of us, would like to see England be able to compete with the best on a regular basis.

I also believe that Wayne Bennett will be the man to lead England to next year’s World Cup but there has to be a clearly visible improvement in the team’s performances between now and then if they are to have any hopes of beating the top two sides in their own back yard.

Personally, just an appearance in next year’s World Cup Final would be an improvement and would show some sign of progression from our national team.  Actually winning the tournament though is still a just a pipe dream.

I must admit, I felt Anfield was an odd choice to stage a rugby league final.  However, the fact it can hold almost 55,000 spectators, and it is second only to Old Trafford in terms of capacity in the north west, AND almost double to size of any Super League ground in the country, I eventually came round to the idea of it being a good choice.

At least the RFL decided to host the Final within the rugby league heartlands and didn’t have any grand ideas of taking the game anywhere else for a change.  It should provide a good atmosphere for as the fans will be very close to the pitch and it will be interesting to see which of the two sides the crowd supports in the absence of a British team.

I found it interesting to read this week that the pitch will be shortened to just over 90 meters instead of the regulation 100.  That should make the kicking games tough for both sides and it will be interesting to see how many errors are made by either team in that respect.  It could come down to who makes fewer errors with the boot as to who eventually wins the game.

This will be my first Four Nations Final so I’m hoping for a much closer game than the last time I saw these opponents contests a final - the World Cup Final at Old Trafford three years ago!

AUSTRALIA vs NEW ZELAND

(Sunday, 20 November, Anfield, Liverpool, 2:30pm)

Australia

The Kangaroos have breezed their way into this weekend’s final with a perfect record of three wins from their three games and will no doubt be odds on favourites with the bookies to win their third Four Nations trophy.

There is no question that Australia have been the best team in this competition but, worryingly for Mal Meninga’s side, New Zealand have been the team that have come closest to beating the them.  I still believe Australia will be too strong for the Kiwis and should win the game comfortably.

As an England fan I was sucked into that warped belief that the “Wall Of White” might actually hold out against the Kangaroos after that first 25 minutes or so, but as soon as Australia got a whiff of the grass behind that not so solid wall they took full advantage and were able to open the proverbial floodgates and wrap the game up with three converted tries in 12 blistering second half minutes.

Australia have huge strength in depth and the fact they will be without Sam Thaiday won’t be a problem as they have enough players to step in and take his place.  It’s expected that Shannon Boyd could make a return to the 17 in his place after missing out against England.

With Jonathan Thurston set to retire after next year’s World Cup this will be his final swansong on English soil for his country so the three-time Golden Boot winner will be keen to end on a high and I expect him to be pulling the strings for his team throughout Sunday’s match.

As you’ll see from my prediction below I expect the Kangaroos to win the game and retain the trophy they last won in 2011 and with it the number one spot in the world rankings.

New Zealand

David Kidwell’s players could not need a better reason to prove themselves after their shock 18-18 draw with Scotland last Friday.  If Scotland had have been able to hold on and snatch victory in that game New Zealand wouldn’t have even been in this Final as England’s 18 point defeat to Australia would still have been enough for them to sneak into Anfield through the back door.

Ironically it was probably the defeat to Australia in Coventry which saw the Kiwi’s best performance.  If they show anything like the kind of performance they pulled off in the final ten minutes or so of that game they will be in with a real shout of beating the Aussies.

Thomas Leuluai will be absent for the Kiwi’s this weekend after picking up a knock against Scotland, but it will be up to their main man Shaun Johnson to have an outstanding game from the off and captain Jesse Bromwich to lead from the front if they want to become the first side to win back-to-back Four Nations.

The New Zealanders also have the added bonus of knowing how to beat Australia in big games as well.  I wouldn’t read into the fact they have been unable to overcome their Antipodean neighbours in any of their three meetings so far this season.  We just have to look at the two Four Nations finals that the Kiwi’s have won in the past and the World Cup Final in 2008 to know that we shouldn’t write this side off.

However, the Kiwi’s have never fared particularly well in big finals played in the Northern Hemisphere and I have a hunch that this will be no different.

MY PREDICTION – Australia to win by 8+ points

2016 Four Nations - Round 3

2016 Four Nations - Round 3

In the week where the free world gained a new leader it seems that nothing has really changed in the world of rugby league.  Last weekend saw what many traditionalists were dreading ... an almost half empty stadium outside the main heartlands witness a frustrating, and at times boring, pair of fixtures which probably didn’t entice many new fans to jump on the RFL bandwagon and start following our beloved sport.

Yes, it was good to see a well-supported Scotland side put England to the sword in the first half hour or so before the hosts pulled their finger out and got a more desirable result than at first seemed possible, and yes, Australia and New Zealand are by far the best two sides on the planet.

A lot has been said this week of Mr Bennett’s unorthodox relationship with the media and their questions, but at least he was honest about the performance and what his thoughts were after the game.  Personally, I’m worried that the hype around our rugby league team is heading in the same direction as what used to be the pre-tournament hype around the England national football team.  Are the media “bigging up” their highly unrealistic chances of actually breaking the mould and winning a major tournament?

Maybe that’s just my pessimistic way of looking at the facts.  I do sincerely hope that it is not the case and Wayne Bennett, Sam Burgess and James Graham et al can finally put together a fantastic performance that the fans can be proud of and get the desired result.

Before that game though is the small matter of New Zealand’s clash with Scotland up in Cumbria.  Most England fans will be hoping for a huge upset but realistically if the Kiwis can win by more than 30 points that should all but put them in the Final next weekend.

NEW ZEALAND vs SCOTLAND

(Friday, 11 November, Derwent Park, Workington, 8pm)

New Zealand

It’s a simple equation for the Kiwis this weekend.  Win the game and they have one foot in their first ever Four Nations Final held in the Northern Hemisphere.  Win the game by a healthy score line and they virtually have both feet in next week’s Final.

David Kidwell’s side are currently third in the group, level on points with second placed England, but have a worse points difference.  They are only 30 points behind England which is a very achievable difference against a Scotland side that may well have played their best game against England in Coventry.

That’s not to say Scotland won’t put in a decent performance on Friday night but the quality that New Zealand possess will be far too strong.  Shaun Johnson was bar far the best player against Australia albeit much quieter than he was against England a week earlier and he will be key once again for the Kiwis.

Adam Blair said this week that he won’t expect any of his team mates to be rested for this game so if that’s true then I wouldn’t bet against the Kiwis’ racking up a big score line against the Scots.

Scotland

Steve McCormack’s men will have been mightily proud of the way they performed on Saturday and will no doubt be aiming to cause New Zealand similar problems on Friday night.  From an England point of view let’s hope they do!

They really did shake England to the core in that first quarter of the game and if they had been a bit more disciplined and fitter they would certainly have been able to keep the score line down.

It was unfortunate that Danny Brough ended up being sent to the sin bin as he was by far Scotland’s best player on the night and if he had been able to stay on the pitch I don’t think England would have scored as many points as they did whilst he was off it.

I was also disappointed that he couldn’t keep his head as he is an important player for the Scots and he should have had the experience and knowledge to be able to control himself and his side so that their penalty count didn’t rise so high throughout the game.

Scotland will have no doubt learned a lot from that game but I think their ambition of winning at least once in the competition has unfortunately passed them by as New Zealand will again be far too strong for them this weekend.

MY PREDICTION – New Zealand to win by 36+ points

ENGLAND vs AUSTRALIA

(Sunday, 13 November, The Olympic Stadium, London, 2pm)

England

It goes without saying that this game is the biggest game of the tournament and England’s big chance of showing their supporters what they can do under new coach Wayne Bennett.

Once kick off arrives, England will know exactly what they need to do in order to progress to next weekend’s final as New Zealand should have beaten Scotland and amassed a decent points difference which will set the benchmark that England need to overcome against the much fancied Aussies.

Bennett will need to play his strongest possible team for this game in order to match up to Australia’s strengths so I’m hopeful we’ll see the return of the players that were rested for the Scotland match and, personally, I would like to see him play as many of his NRL based players as possible.  This should give England the strength needed to match up to Australia and sneak the desired result.

The lads will need to start strong in this match and keep it up for the full 80 minutes otherwise they will come under some strong scrutiny from the press and supporters.  Also, if Australia are on their game, it could lead to some very uncomfortable viewing.

There’s already some calls within the media that England are no better with Wayne Bennett as coach than they have been previously so what better way of proving the doubters wrong than securing a memorable victory?

Australia

There have been no such worries for Mal Meninga’s side who have breezed through their opening two games without having to really get into top gear, cruising past Scotland two weeks ago before only really being threatened by the Kiwis late in the second half last week.

Meninga did rest a couple of players in their match at Coventry ahead of their final group game against England which sounds very ominous.  I fully expect Jonathan Thurston, Greg Inglis and Cameron Smith to retain their places in the side (injury permitting) and Cooper Cronk should be back in action after being one of those rested against the New Zealanders.

There is a very real possibility that Australia won’t qualify for next weekend’s final.  If New Zealand beat Scotland by 42 points and England manage to beat the Aussies by 12 points they would finish third in the group and be out of the competition!  Unthinkable at the time of writing and probably won’t happen but it’s interesting to know.

I fully expect Australia to breeze on to Anfield as expected and then reclaim the Four Nations trophy from New Zealand without really breaking into a sweat.

MY PREDICTION – I hope I’m wrong but Australia to win by 10+ points

2016 Four Nations - Round 2

2016 Four Nations - Round 2

You could sense the disappointment all around the country after last weekend’s defeat to New Zealand.  The reaction amongst the press was quite clear that Wayne Bennett’s side were just not good enough to get over the line for that elusive try that would have won the game.

Garry Schofield was particularly scathing in League Express this week, and rightly so, as England should have had that game wrapped up and in the bag before Shaun Johnson scored his interception try to effectively end the match as a contest.

The lads have a full week to dust themselves off now and prepare for Saturday’s double-header at Coventry’s Ricoh Arena and get a good result against Scotland.  Personally only a 30-40 point victory would make me happy.

In the second game of the evening New Zealand will try their hand at upsetting competition favourites Australia and whoever wins that game will all but book their place in the Final at Anfield.

I didn’t watch Australia’s win over Scotland last week but I read that it was convincing enough to confirm they would have too much for New Zealand in my eyes.  I think the best outcome for England would be to beat Scotland by at least 40 points and New Zealand to sneak a win over the Aussies.  That would make the game between Australia and England next weekend effectively a winner-takes-all semi final to then meet the Kiwis at Anfield.

ENGLAND vs SOTLAND

(Saturday, 5 November, Ricoh Arena, Coventry, 5:30pm)

England

Only a magnificent display against Scotland in Coventry on Saturday would dispel any disappointment from last weekend’s narrow defeat and go some way towards bringing a bit of hope back into the squad ahead of next weekend’s crunch game with Australia in London.

In all fairness, Wayne Bennett’s side didn’t play badly against New Zealand.  They defended well considering they had to face countless repeat sets thanks to Shaun Johnson’s neat kicks and but couldn’t add the points at the other end of the field when needed.

I thought James Graham was slightly unlucky to have not been awarded his try by the video ref which would have made the score 10-0 to England following a successful kick, and I was impressed with the performances of the wingers and Gareth Widdop.

So it surprises me that Bennett has made Widdop one of the two changes to his 19-man squad to face the Scots as he was undoubtedly one of England’s best players against the Kiwis.  He will also rest James Graham so he can recover from a minor knee injury and Mark Percival and Scott Taylor will come in whilst Stefan Ratchford misses out again.

There’s not much more Bennet can do with his squad in order for them to be ready to face Scotland but it is hugely important they learn how to me more clinical and ruthless in the final 20 meters or so in order to get much needed points on the board.

Scotland

Steve McCormack will have been happy with his side’s performance against Australia last weekend and will have taken a lot of positives out of the game despite losing by 42 points.

Scotland will be a threat this weekend and England know they will have to be on their game to get a decent result against the Four Nations debutants.  They had ambitions before the tournament began to be the first ‘fourth nation’ to win at least one game in the competition and, even though they didn’t say it, this will have been the game that they targeted to achieve that feat.

The Scots know it would be a major embarrassment to their English counterparts if they do beat them on Saturday and McCormack has decided to make just three changes to his side to do so.

Interestingly, Ryan Brierley will make way for Batley’s David Phillips in the 19-man squad alongside Brett and Callum Phillips.  I’m surprised as Brierley played well in the backs with his team mate Danny Brough and thought the connection between the two would have been key against England.  But McCormack will now opt for either Danny Addy or Lachlan Coote to partner the Scottish captain in the backs.

I still think it will be difficult as England’s team of Super League and NRL full timers should be too strong for Scotland’s mix of full and part-time players.

MY PREDICTION – England to win by 20+ points

NEW ZEALAND vs AUSTRALIA

(Saturday, 5 November, Ricoh Arena, Coventry, 8pm)

New Zealand

The odds were stacked highly against them last weekend when they faced the hosts at a packed out John Smith’s Stadium in Huddersfield but, full credit to David Kidwell and his men, they overcame those odds to upset the English rugby league public and win the tie.

This was New Zealand’s first tournament win over England on these shores in a long time (yes, they won a match here last year, but that was part of a three-match series) and the confidence they will have gained from that victory will make them a very dangerous side for Australia this time around.

Kidwell has been forced into a couple of changes to his side for this clash as both Jason Nightingale and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves are injured so up steps Gerard Beale and Greg Eastwood.  If those players hadn’t picked up injuries it would be interesting to know if he would have made any changes at all.

Shaun Johnson was outstanding, again, against England and he will be pivotal this week as well against the Aussies, as will Adam Blair who also had a great game last weekend.

Can I see a New Zealand win at all in this game?  Yes, but only if those two are on top form and they defend as well as they did against England.

Australia

A 56-12 victory in their opening match of the tournament was the perfect start for Mal Meninga’s side and they continued on their good work from their second half performance in their pre-tournament win against New Zealand three weeks ago.

They achieved this victory without either Jonathan Thurston or Greg Inglis who were both rested so I feel sorry for New Zealand on Saturday as I think Australia will be far too strong with those two in the side.

Meninga has named all seven of the players who missed out on the final 17 against Scotland in his 19-man squad for this tie which means the likes of Tyson Frizell, Josh Duggan, Jake Trbojevic and, ominously, Cooper Cronk have been rested ahead of the game with England in a week’s time.

It was nice to read that the Aussie’s invited the Scottish lads into their dressing room after the game for a post match beer and I think they’ll need to do the same for both New Zealand and England in the next couple of weeks before cracking open the Champaign which is currently on ice in their dressing room at Anfield!

MY PREDICTON – Australia to win by 10+ points